BELGIAN INSIDER BUYING in the March market decline

This health crisis is real.

I am really sad to say my family was hit by the Corona virus. My sister is at home with mild symptoms, but especially my father-in-law is fighting for his life on the intensive care with artifical respiration.

Hope is here his good health, lust for life and daily walks are what will pull him trough.

My respect and gratitude go out to all the people caring for him at the hospital. They do an amazing job.

ON TO THE MARKET

I am not convinced we are at the depth of this crisis yet. Populated countries with a problematic health care system are only starting to see the first faze of this pandemic.

Also, the top tier companies with good growth prospects for the coming five years or so and high return on capital employed are still not cheap.

Not cheap enough for me, at least.

In times like this the mental calculation I do is this: will the intrinsic value of this stock be worth 3 times today’s share price in 2025 ?

Obviously, also in Belgium there has been a sell-off.

Since uportunistacly cannibalistic stocks are about the best investments one can have, it is a solid question to wander: Who has been buying it’s own shares?

Screen Shot 2020-03-31 at 15.10.59

The Insider. Not a bad movie, if I might say so. Also : you will never see me buying tobacco companies: those who kill their costumers and lie about it, is not the kind of cannibalism I’m looking for.

As for now, only since medio Februari.

CIE shares bought # insiders price/share total shares (‘000) bought/total
Agfa 2254352,214 1 3,08 171.850 1,312%
Banimmo 144300 4 3,17 11.357 1,271%
IBA 197635 2 10,47 30.130 0,656%
Accentis 4445437 1 0,05 1.267.750 0,351%
Lotus 2623 3 2750,00 820 0,320%
Emakina 6059 1 12,14 3.890 0,156%
Tessenderlo 37296 1 31,27 43.150 0,086%
Barco 7894 1 107,32 13.070 0,060%
Balta 20000 1 2,21 35.940 0,056%
Bekaert 10600 2 16,44 35.940 0,056%
deceuninck 62500 3 1,82 245.140 0,046%
Econocom 77986 1 1,50 245.140 0,032%
Colruyt 37000 1 26,33 143.550 0,026%
Xior 2600 1 38,50 13.770 0,019%
Sipef 1917 1 38,75 10.580 0,018%
Solvac 3134 4 113,64 21.380 0,015%
GBL 22950 9 57,28 161.360 0,014%
Tinc 3500 1 14,00 27.270 0,013%
Solvay 12611 3 85,43 105.880 0,012%
Kinepolis 3050 1 39,53 27.370 0,011%
Resilux 200 1 118,74 2.020 0,010%
KBC 40450 3 55,17 416.390 0,010%
Intervest 1800 1 21,61 24.290 0,007%
Care Property 1104 2 26,59 19.320 0,006%
Fagron 4000 2 14,45 72.180 0,006%
Befimmo 1110 2 45,53 25.580 0,004%
Telenet 4000 3 29,10 114.660 0,003%
Crescent 45000 1 0,02 1.368.830 0,003%
All data are provided by the Belgian SEC, called FMSA. I will be updating this table with middle Februari as a starting date for the foreseeable future.

SOME OBSERVATIONS

There hasn’t been a stampede of Insiders into their own stock. I was expecting bigger numbers.

This can point towards 2 things: or the Insiders think we haven’t seen the depth of the crisis yet and are waiting for better entry points OR they now the state of their companies and …are waiting for better entry points.

The Chairman of Agfa Gevaert (see my write-up) has been buying shares in substantial amounts, both in absolute and relative numbers.

The new controlling entity of Banimmo (write-up here) believes in the turnaround.

Iep Invest  continues to buy “Hot Stock Nominee” Accentis (write-up here) in an attempt to gain total control.

The Colruyt family continues to buy Colruyt. (Soon, we will tackle the letter “C”)

And a lot of insiders are buying GBL, altough in modest amounts.

Luc Tack keeps on buying Tessenderlo for his personal account  – but part of that might be as some kind of compensations package (not sure).

Other significant insider buys were with TITAN CEMENT and AKKA, but those are not Belgian companies per sé.

NET SELLERS

On the sell side we saw a lot of INBEV insider selling. Those include CEO Carlos Brito and Belgian richest man Alexandre Vandamme.

And there was some remarkable selling by Alexandre Saboundjian of Audiovalley (write-up), after buying at higher prices in the beginning of February.

CONCLUSSION

Agfa might be cheap at the moment, but we are not a fan.

Former ugly duck Banimmo might we worth a closer look, as we will do when we sniff on the Belgian real estate developers as an ensemble.

Accentis is worth keeping an eye on.

But especially : keep safe, keep distance, keep on washing your hands and keep your fingers crossed this pandemic will slow down soon.

 

 

 

 

 

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